Naturalistic Decision Making by Caroline E. Zsambok download in pdf, ePub, iPad
The first moves that occurred to them were much better than would be expected by chance. In the first variation, the decision maker when faced with the problem at hand, responds with the course of action that was first generated. It has been found that fireground commanders evaluate a course of action by using mental simulation to imagine how a situation would play out within the context of the current situation. Intuitive strategy relying only on pattern matching would be too risky because sometimes the pattern matching generates flawed options.
If it almost worked, they could try to adapt it or else consider other actions that were somewhat less typical, continuing until they found an option that felt comfortable. In contrast, controlled laboratory studies emphasize the testing of hypotheses. Instead of looking for ways that people were suboptimal, they wanted to find out how people were able to make tough decisions under difficult conditions. Disturbingly, areas associated with low scores were knowledge of, and ability to apply, information related to the assessment and collection of data provided by pulmonary artery catheter monitoring.
For these reasons, gaps exist in the literature related to our understanding of real-world decision making. Both the Army and the Navy wanted to help people make high-stakes decisions under extreme time pressure and under dynamic and uncertain conditions. When people need to make a decision, they can quickly match the situation to the patterns they have learned and experienced in the past.
Doing this, people can successfully make rapid decisions. Instead of beginning with formal models of decision making, they began by conducting field research to try to discover the strategies people used.
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